In 2024, the overall operation of China's paint raw material market is not good under the influence of the overall environment, with a general decrease in the profitability of production enterprises, a reduction in enterprise orders, and an increase in market operating pressure. Many companies are striving to explore overseas markets in search of new development opportunities, but the current market environment is weak, growth momentum is insufficient, and the industry is facing significant challenges. From the perspective of representative products, epoxy resin TDI、 The prices of products such as ethyl acetate, propylene glycol, and titanium dioxide are significantly lower than the same period last year.

According to monitoring data from the Purchasing and Plastics Research Institute, the cost index of paint procurement in December 2024 was 81%, an increase of 1 percentage point month on month and a decrease of 6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023. Looking at the trend in 2024, the paint procurement cost index showed a low volatility throughout the year, with the index value in November being the lowest in nearly 8 years.

According to monitoring data from the Purchasing and Plastics Research Institute, the purchasing cost index of powder coatings in December 2024 was 117%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the previous month and an increase of 27 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023. The cost index of waterproof material procurement in December 2024 was 101%, a decrease of 5 percentage points month on month and an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year.

Titanium dioxide

In 2024, the price of titanium dioxide in China showed a trend of first rising and then falling throughout the year. Although the price fluctuated, the overall volatility was relatively weak. According to data from the Purchasing and Plastics Research Institute, taking rutile titanium dioxide as an example, the highest price in 2024 is 17000 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 13800 yuan/ton, and the annual average price is 15495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from the average price in 2023 (15697 yuan/ton).

In 2024, China's titanium dioxide production capacity will continue to maintain a growth trend. In addition, China's titanium dioxide production has also shown strong growth, with an annual output of 4.5-46 million tons. The release of new production capacity is an important factor driving production growth. While the supply side is growing, China's titanium dioxide exports are facing enormous pressure. The European Union, Brazil, and other countries have imposed high anti-dumping tariffs on titanium dioxide produced in China. However, China's titanium dioxide exports have reached a new high. According to customs data, China's total exports of titanium dioxide reached 1.9017 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%.

Toluene diisocyanate (TDI)

In 2024, due to oversupply and weak demand in downstream sectors, China's TDI prices and profits experienced a serious decline. According to data from the Purchasing and Plastics Research Institute, the highest price of TDI in the Chinese market in 2024 is 17200 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 12500 yuan/ton, and the annual average price is 14313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.68% compared to 2023 (17821 yuan/ton).

From the perspective of the global TDI supply pattern, the newly added production capacity is mainly concentrated in China. In 2024, Gansu Yinguang and Wanhua Chemical will carry out technological transformation and capacity expansion of existing facilities, and China's TDI production capacity will be increased to 1.63 million tons. The reduction of overseas production capacity has led to a gap in demand in overseas markets, while China's TDI continues to expand its export scale with its price advantage. According to customs data, the export volume of TDI from China reached 366500 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.21%.

Butyl Acrylate

In 2024, China's real estate industry will continue to be depressed. The butyl acrylate downstream tape master roll and acrylic lotion will hardly improve, and the contradiction between supply and demand of butyl acrylate will be further strained. At the same time, in 2024, the cost of butyl acrylate remains high, and the profits of the industrial chain are concentrated upstream. Due to the difficulty in transmitting prices from downstream factories, the upward trend of butyl acrylate is difficult to sustain. According to data from the Purchasing and Plastics Research Institute, the highest price of butyl acrylate in China for the year was 9700 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8400 yuan/ton, and the average price for the year was 9037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% from 2023 (9321 yuan/ton).

In 2024, the production capacity of China's acrylic acid industry will continue to expand. With the commissioning of Wanhua Chemical Plant, the total production capacity of China's acrylic acid industry will reach 4.24 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 3.92%. The total production capacity of butyl acrylate will reach 3.74 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 12%. The supply of butyl acrylate in China will further increase, and the supply and demand pattern will still face significant challenges.