HZ info£ºOn April 2nd, the US government announced the imposition of a 34% "equivalent tariff" on Chinese goods imported to the US. On April 4th, China fired 11 arrows at once. The Tariff Commission of the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Customs successively issued multiple countermeasures against the United States, including imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating in the United States from 12:01 on April 10th, suing the United States for related practices under the World Trade Organization dispute settlement mechanism, listing multiple American entities or enterprises on the export control list or unreliable entity list, implementing export controls on items related to medium and heavy rare earths, and suspending the export qualifications of poultry meat products from two American companies, sorghum from one company, and poultry meat and bone meal from three companies to China.

The domestic plastic market is collapsing and falling!

Worried that the US tariff policy and its retaliatory response would lead to a global economic recession and a decrease in commodity demand, panic has caused significant declines in US stocks, crude oil futures, and especially WTI crude oil, which plummeted 7.4%, hitting a new low in nearly four years.

Under the situation of emotional panic and cost decline, most domestic plastic futures prices fell at the opening on April 7th. As of the close of trading, PX¡¢ Styrene PTA¡¢ Ethylene glycol and other products hit the limit down, plastics fell by nearly 5%, PVC fell by nearly 4%, and PP fell by over 2%.

The cost of tariffs has directly increased by 207.2 billion yuan

For the chemical and plastic industry, after the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese chemical and plastic products, the competitiveness of Chinese chemical and plastic products in the US market has significantly decreased, and related companies may face a decrease in orders and revenue. In addition, other exporting countries may seize some of the US market, further compressing the market share of Chinese plastic products. Additionally, the instability of the supply chain is also a significant impact. The imposition of tariffs has led to instability in the supply chain, which means weakened export competitiveness and increased supply chain risks for Chinese chemical and plastic enterprises. Especially in the chemical products imported by the United States to China, plastics and their products, organic chemicals, and rubber and their products account for a relatively high proportion. The decline in export competitiveness of these products will directly affect the operations of related enterprises.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the total trade volume between China and the United States in 2024 was 688.28 billion US dollars. Among them, China exported 524.656 billion US dollars (3733.722 billion yuan) to the United States. If the United States imposes a 34% tariff on $524.656 billion worth of goods exported from China, the cost of tariffs would increase by approximately $178.383 billion.

From a segmented perspective, China's exports of plastics/rubber and products to the United States amounted to 189.064 billion yuan, accounting for 5.06% of the total export goods; The export value of chemicals and chemical products was 128.344 billion yuan, accounting for 3.44% of the total export goods. If the United States imposes a 34% tariff on the above goods, a simple calculation shows that China's export costs will increase by about 107.919 billion yuan.

The amount and proportion of plastic goods exported from China to the United States in 2024

In addition, data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that China's total imports of goods from the United States in 2024 amounted to 163.624 billion US dollars (1164.061 billion yuan). Among them, China imported chemicals and chemicals worth 146.898 billion yuan from the United States, accounting for 12.62% of the total imported goods from the United States. The import value of liquefied propane/butane in energy products was 82.744 billion yuan, accounting for 7.11%. The import value of plastics/rubber and products was 62.213 billion yuan, accounting for 5.34% of the total import goods.

From the perspective of the subdivision of chemicals and chemical products, the import value of organic-inorganic chemicals was 44.696 billion yuan, accounting for 3.84%; Chemical drugs amounted to 40.079 billion yuan, accounting for 3.44%; Cosmetics and skincare products amounted to 14.227 billion yuan, accounting for 1.22%; The backing reagent costs 12.345 billion yuan, accounting for 1.06%.

If China imposes a 34% tariff on the above goods, it is estimated that the import cost will increase by about 99.231 billion yuan.

The amount and proportion of plastic goods imported by China from the United States in 2024

Therefore, if both parties implement new tariffs, the direct tariff cost of China's import and export of plastic goods will increase by 207.15 billion yuan.